Your Instinct Isn’t Enough: Why Great Leaders Validate Their Gut
Plus a Free Metrics Guide to get you started.
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In leadership, especially in nonprofits, small organizations, church leadership, and even in the work of writers, many decisions are made quickly, under pressure, with limited input…. on instinct. Sometimes, that works. But without metrics, even seasoned intuition can drift into bias. And while we talk about discernment, what we often lack is definition.
And let’s be honest, if you are building a writing income stream, you are the CEO of your personal business.
In fact, I began thinking about this in terms of writing when I saw this note from
on how even in writing, following your intuition doesn’t mean you are right if it is not backed by anything. It’s no surprise that on Substack growth, Sinem has arguably the best track record of client success.Leaders need both, intuition and data, but they rarely have access to systems that support both. This isn’t just true for executive directors or pastors. It’s true for Substack writers, creators, and solo entrepreneurs too. If you’re trying to build trust, grow reach, and shape something meaningful through your writing, then your decisions, about what to write, when to pivot, how to grow, should be grounded in more than what “feels right.” But that’s exactly where clarity is needed most. Good instincts are essential. But tested instincts, backed by data, are transformational.
Why should we avoid simply relying on instinct? on gut feeling? Let’s take a look.
But first, let’s start with what we mean by “gut”? By “intuition”? And what do we mean by “data”?
Gut / Instinct: In this context, we’re talking about subconscious, experience-informed judgment. It’s not guesswork, it’s a combination of experience, education, and accumulated wisdom.
Data / Metrics: This includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators, numbers that reflect real trends, and feedback that reveals patterns across time. This is objective data that you track and that simply reflects true performance. It could be attendance, engagement, donor behavior, volunteer churn, or retention rates. In other words: measurable reflections of what’s actually happening.
And here’s what I have seen both in the US as well as internationally over the last decade: in most small nonprofits and startups, the infrastructure to collect this kind of data doesn’t exist.
Why We Keep Defaulting to Gut Alone
Let’s be honest. In mission-driven work, we often rely on what we “feel is right.”
Not because we’re undisciplined, but because we’re focused on the work, on the programmatic deliverables, on rolling up our sleeves and getting our hands dirty.
You feel it when:
Your team makes a major shift based on a few passionate voices
A new program is extended because we think “people like it”
One person’s negative review causes impromptu changes because it’s urgent, and loud
And part of the reason is systemic: most churches and nonprofits aren’t resourced to track KPIs. Time, energy, and relational capital go to keeping the work moving, but we fail to validate the work's impact.
But this comes at a cost. Because when we don’t verify our instincts, we start solving for symptoms, not systems.
A great article in the HBR said the following:
“Even the most difficult-to-measure concepts can contain valuable insights.”
—Marcy Farrell, Data and Intuition: Good Decisions Need Both (HBR, 2023)
In a recent conversation with Matthew Kessler-Vaught, nonprofit strategist and founder of KJ Consulting Group, we talked about how often leaders lean on instinct, not out of recklessness, but because it's what they've learned to trust. In it, he said something that resonated deeply:
"That gut feeling, built from years of navigating complexity, matters," he shared. "But today’s environment is faster, more layered. Leading well means using both intuition and insight, supported by real-time data from qualitative and quantitative metrics. Smart decisions are not either-or."
What worked by feel in the past now demands both wisdom and evidence. It's not about replacing intuition, it’s about refining it with insight.
What you do, what you are trying to accomplish, is too important to risk drifting from what will lead to success because of wrong assumptions.
Joel Salinas
I’ve watched it happen again and again:
A creator abandons a growing series because a few readers unsubscribed, without realizing their open rates were rising.
A pastor doubles down on a ministry model because “it’s what we’ve always done”, even though growth is negative, research is null, and impact unclear.
A nonprofit pivots strategy based on one or two donor emails, without asking whether that story is reflective or exceptional.
A writer rushes away from an initiative because he or she thought it should have already taken off, when data would show that growth is starting.
These aren’t foolish decisions. They’re human ones. But they’re also short-sighted.
Is there a place for intuition? Gut decisions?
In the same HBR article, Marcy Farrell goes on to write that gut feelings can lead to better decisions, but only “when the issue is ambiguous and further data gathering won’t sway the decision.”
That’s the key: intuition should guide when data is exhausted, not when data is ignored.
There is a risk of going too far on the side of metrics, to have so many dashboards and KPIs that they are ignored, or wrong KPIs lead a team into focusing on the wrong deliverables and going off course. This is where Intuition comes in, to balance out metrics and data through experience and knowledge.
What the Best Leaders Actually Do
Great leaders don’t trust their gut blindly. They cross-check it.
They ask:
What am I feeling—and where is it coming from?
Ask yourself: Experience? Urgency? Past success? Stress?What data do I have—or need—to support this instinct?
Ask yourself: Are we looking at the full picture or just the loud parts?What’s missing from my field of view?
Ask yourself: Have I validated this with trend data, not just anecdote?
“Gut feelings can lead us to make better decisions, especially in high-risk settings where data can no longer move us one way or another.”
—Data and Intuition: Good Decisions Need Both (HBR, 2023)
🔄 The Sweet Spot: When Gut and Data Overlap
Think of this as a Venn diagram, the one at the top of this article:
One circle is instinct
The other is metrics
The overlap? That’s the “Sweet Spot”, where clarity emerges, and risk is minimized
Decisions made from this zone are fast, but not reckless. They’re grounded in experience, but also in evidence. They honor relationship, but are resilient to bias.
This is the leadership model we need in the church and nonprofit world, especially when every resource matters, and every decision carries weight.
Metrics to Get You Started
If you’re not sure what to measure, start here. These four categories will help you spot growth, strain, and sustainability before they become crisis points.
1. Team Health Metrics
Track what keeps your people strong, not just present.
Pulse Check Score
Monthly 1–10 survey: “How clear and supported do you feel?” Look for trends, changes year to year.Workload Bandwidth
If a large % of team reports they’re at 80%+ capacity most weeks, there’s little to no margin, there’s no room for emergencies or the unexpected. Burnout often follows.Stay Factors Survey
Ask: “What’s keeping you here?” (Done quarterly.) Reveals culture stickiness.Psychological Safety Index
Do people feel safe giving feedback, owning mistakes, speaking up?
2. Growth & Engagement Metrics (Acquisition)
Measure reach and resonance.
Participation Growth (MoM, YoY)
Compare this month vs. last month + this year vs. last year. Look for both growth, patterns, and consistency.New and Returning Engagement
Track % of participants who are first-timers vs. repeat over time. High returners = trust; high new = reach.Next-Step Conversion Rates
Of those who engage, how many take a deeper step (donate, join, serve)? Has this been affected by your latest strategy or campaign?
3. Financial & Fundraising Metrics
Measure sustainability, not just generosity.
Total Giving (Monthly, Quarterly, Annually)
Break down by recurring vs. one-time. Patterns matter more than peaks.Donor Retention by Channel
What % of donors stick around from each source (email, events, social)?Donor LTV (Lifetime Value)
How much does a typical 1x donor or customer give over their lifetime. How about monthly donors or subscribers?Acquisition Cost per Donor
Total spend to acquire ÷ # of new donors. If you're spending more than LTV, it's unsustainable. You must know how much is too much to spend on someone new.
4. Mission Impact Metrics
Measure real change and how it feels.
Outcome Surveys
Ask: “What’s changed for you?” Focus on stories, not just scores.Year-over-Year Perception Change
How do participants/donors describe you this year vs. last?Net Promoter Score (NPS)
Would they recommend you to others? (Score of -100 to 100.)
5. Writer/Creator Metrics to Watch
If you’re building a writing-based business or platform…
Open Rate Trends: Is your email/newsletter being opened more or less over time?
Subscriber Growth vs. Unsubscribes: Are you attracting the right readers, or repelling them?
Engagement Rate: Are people replying, sharing, commenting, or just skimming?
Topic Performance: Which topics consistently overperform (clicks, shares, conversions)?
You don’t need a full dashboard, just clarity on what you’re building and how you’ll know it’s working.
Track what matters. Not because data replaces wisdom, but because it reveals what your eyes can’t always see.
If You Only Remember This
Intuition is valuable, but not infallible
Metrics matter, even when they’re hard to gather
Good leaders ask, What do I feel? Then check, is this backed by data?
The real wisdom lies in the overlap: experience + evidence
Are there assumptions you’ve made that deserve a second look with data?
Weekly Learning Corner
Here is what I encourage you to dive into this week…
On Substack growth, I enjoy how
, and strike a balance between their experience-built instincts, but also point to data and key metrics that show whether that strategy is working or needs a pivot.On books, check out Measure What Matters - John Doerr - One of the clearest breakdowns of the needs for measuring KPIs in any industry that I have come across.
On spiritual growth, check out the encouraging content of
and .On self-growth, here is a great article on Fear Tactics by
.
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Really love how you framed this, especially how you broke down different metrics for different situations! I haven’t been very consistent about tracking my own creator metrics, so this was a much-needed reminder.
I’m truly honored that you’re enjoying my work too, I’ve felt the same about yours. Thank you for the thoughtful conversations!
I say this time and time again that you have to use both intuition and data. If you're just relying on what you think, you could be leading yourself right off a cliff.