Lauren, Appreciate the insight! You’re the first person I’ve seen identify the consumer spending problem with mass AI displacement. Ideally, we’ll figure out something more interesting to do with AI than reduce headcount.
This is the part that gets skipped every time, Joel: everyone models the upside and waves the downside straight through. The reminder that your B2C customer is also someone's employee is the one I hadn't framed that way before, and it reshapes the whole margins question. Which of Lauren's three blind spots do leaders push back on hardest when you raise it?
Thanks, Melanie! In the conversations I'm having, leaders are dismissing point three the most when it comes to modeling potential market shrinkage. The rationale here is there are too many variables outside of their control and a five year forecast or long range plan is a best guess anyways and is always changing. Other rationales for those fundraising are that potential investors never want to see a reduction or flat line in top line projections in their pitch deck. There is also a strong sentiment of "certainly AI won't replace all jobs" but I do believe we would be remise if we didn't anticipate some sort of impact. All of which are understandable from their perspective, sadly my job is to be a Debbie Downer at times.
Joel pushes back hardest on the shrinking-market one, I'd guess. Vendor pricing and tax exposure are line items a CFO can model; the idea that your own efficiency play erodes the demand pool feels too diffuse to put in a spreadsheet. The lag is brutal too: you book the savings this quarter, the addressable-market hit shows up three boards from now.
It was a pleasure writing for Leadership in Change, thank you, Joel!
You did an amazing job!
You cut payroll, then find out your new “employee” is a software company that can put the rent up whenever it likes.
Joel, Thanks for hosting this article!
Lauren, Appreciate the insight! You’re the first person I’ve seen identify the consumer spending problem with mass AI displacement. Ideally, we’ll figure out something more interesting to do with AI than reduce headcount.
Thanks, Karen! I'm glad you enjoyed it.
I agree, I'm hopeful we can find better uses to AI than reduce headcount.
Yes, 🙌 @Karen Spinner that stuck out to me too
This is the part that gets skipped every time, Joel: everyone models the upside and waves the downside straight through. The reminder that your B2C customer is also someone's employee is the one I hadn't framed that way before, and it reshapes the whole margins question. Which of Lauren's three blind spots do leaders push back on hardest when you raise it?
Thanks, Melanie! In the conversations I'm having, leaders are dismissing point three the most when it comes to modeling potential market shrinkage. The rationale here is there are too many variables outside of their control and a five year forecast or long range plan is a best guess anyways and is always changing. Other rationales for those fundraising are that potential investors never want to see a reduction or flat line in top line projections in their pitch deck. There is also a strong sentiment of "certainly AI won't replace all jobs" but I do believe we would be remise if we didn't anticipate some sort of impact. All of which are understandable from their perspective, sadly my job is to be a Debbie Downer at times.
Joel pushes back hardest on the shrinking-market one, I'd guess. Vendor pricing and tax exposure are line items a CFO can model; the idea that your own efficiency play erodes the demand pool feels too diffuse to put in a spreadsheet. The lag is brutal too: you book the savings this quarter, the addressable-market hit shows up three boards from now.
The assumptions you skip on the front end are the ones that cost you on the back end.
👏🙌